Let's Talk Stocks
Picture
logo design

Let's Talk Stocks

Picture
Through this blog i want to share my views on stock market. I have been investing in stock market since last 20 years. I have not only been successful in protecting my capital but get a decent return on my investments. Now i have decided to share my success with fellow investors.

I shall be identifying stocks with higher potential for growth with minimum risk. Investors are expected to use their judgement in their investment decisions.

 

03rd January 2011
Market again moving up.
The key benchmark indices surged again on first day of new year. This is very encouraging and one can look forward to further up move in coming days, helped by firm global stocks.The barometer index BSE Sensex and the 50- unit S&P Nifty, both, attained1-1/2 - month closing highs. Banking, consumer durables, FMCG and metal shares led the rally.
Sterlite Ind., Hindalco Industries hit a record high.

Check the promising stocks on http://mytopstockpicks.weebly.com/
HAPPY NEW YEAR       2011     HAPPY INVESTING
Picture

My Stock Pick

Meghmani Organics is a company in Agro chemicals with 2nd largest turnover after Rallis India. The stock is traded at PE ratio of 6 at current market price as against industry average of 18. The stock is traded at below book value while its other competitors are traded at 6-7 times book value. Sales for FY 2009-10 was Rs. 800 Crores with profit of over Rs. 60 Crores. The Company is a regular dividend paying company with 40% in latest year. The company has investments of Rs. 130.00 Crores which can unlock significant value in future. The company is in expansion mode and has recently set up one more plant.
The stock is grossly under valued and has potential to be  a Multi Bagger.
Now CNBC TV expert Ashish Tater also recommending this stock.

Market Cap 453.95 * EPS (TTM) 2.56 * P/E 6.07 * P/C 5.53 * Book Value 19.58 * Price/Book 0.81
Div(%) 40.00% * Div Yield(%) 2.24 Face Value 1.00 Industry P/E 17.58
Follow mystocktalk on Twitter

IPO Buzz

Punjab & Sindh Bank - Buy
A2Z        SELL
MOIL 
      Buy below 450
Shipping Corporation     Hold               
Claris Lifescience            Sell            
Power Grid 
    HOLD
RPP Infra       Sale
Gravita India  Book profit and avoid investment.        
Coal India       Those still hold may continue for Long Term.
Forthcoming Issues:
Hind Copper
 
FPOs are expected shortly. The stock will be under pressure due to FPO price, which will be atleast 10-15% discount to the current price. Existing investors sell and re-enter after FPO.
Check IPO page for complete details about IPOs.
Custom Search

                                                          Check Currenty Rates of any past date also >
Catch the
Live Market
action

Tips on Personal Finance

Check NRI Corner for important updates

TOP PICKS FOR 2011

Bajaj Auto (BAL):  We expect volumes for BAL to witness higher than industry growth in the next two years resulting in revenue CAGR of 27% over FY10- 12E. With commodity prices not expected to witness a quantum jump and a favorable product mix for BAL, we estimate OPM to be maintained at current levels. Premium valuations would continue on the back of industry best earnings profile.

Larsen & Toubro (L&T): Planned unlocking of value in L&T Finance and L&T Infra Finance during FY11 through IPO/private equity would be a significant positive for the stock. We expect L&T’s stand-alone revenues to witness 22.9% CAGR over FY10-12E. OPM is expected to remain stable in FY11 and witness marginal decline in FY12. Pre-exceptional earnings are expected to witness 20% CAGR over FY10-12E. Based on SOTP valuations, we arrive at a target price of Rs 2300.

Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M): We value M&M at Rs 864 per share, which includes Rs 621 for its automotive business (14x P/E for FY12E) and Rs 243 for its subsidiaries. Substantial exposure to rural sector and improving product profile will keep earnings momentum intact. We have not factored in any value from its commercial vehicle JV with Navistar.

Rural Electrification Corp: The stock has underperformed its peers and currently trades at 1.9x FY12 BV which does not adequately reflect 1) a diversified 26% loan cagr over FY10-12 2) stable spreads coupled with negligible NPL and 3) impressive return ratios (avg RoE/RoA of 22%/3.2%). We expect valuations to re-rate from current levels. Foray into banking space and increase in FII limit to 35% remain key positives. Slowdown in power capacity addition remains a key concern.

Reliance Industries (RIL): During its AGM in June 2010, RIL had announced its intent to enter into power and telecom sector. In the telecom space, it acquired Infotel which was the largest winner for broadband licenses. RIL has plans to bid for Ultra Mega Power Plants (UMPP) projects. Furthermore, the company recently acquired a 14.2% stake in EIH Hotels for a sum of Rs 10 billion. With cash and cash equivalents of ~Rs 293 billion and a net debt/equity ratio of 0.3x, we believe RIL’s inorganic initiatives will gain further momentum.
 
State Bank of India (SBI): Given the bank’s sheer size (commands 1/4th of the industry as a group), extensive reach (to benefit from semi-urban and rural upswing) and a well-diversified loan portfolio, SBI is the best proxy on the Indian Banking story. Recommend BUY with a SOTP target price of Rs 3500 which has been arrived after valuing 1) stand-alone bank at Rs 2830 using our proprietary Bank 20 valuation model 2) ownership in the six associate banks at Rs 460 3) 74% stake in SBI Life at Rs 157 4) 63% stake in SBI MF at Rs 19 and 5) SBI Caps at Rs 35.

Sterlite Industries: Sterlite has underperformed the broader markets and its peers over the last one year on the back of regulatory restrictions on the company’s operations in Orissa and Tuticorin. However, any breakthrough in the arbitration proceedings for its proposed acquisition of the government’s minority stakes in BALCO and HZL would be a positive trigger for the company. We believe going forward Sterlite’s earnings will be boosted by strong numbers from the power and zinc division. We believe that the stock has limited downside and recommend a BUY rating on the stock.

Tata Steel: Over the last one month, Rio Tinto has been in discussion with Riversdale Mining (Tata Steel holds 24.3% equity in Riversdale and 35% stake in the Mozambique JV with 40% off-take rights), valuing Tata Steel’s investment at Rs40/share. Domestic operations would continue to be the earnings driver led by strong raw material integration and volume growth led by the commissioning of the new blast furnace. We expect the stock to outperform the market in the near term and recommend BUY.

Top Midcap BUYs

Escorts: Backed by robust volume growth, we expect Escorts to witness a CAGR of 11% in revenues during F9/10-F9/12E. Margin expansion and declining debt levels (lower interest costs) should result in a PAT (pre-exceptional) CAGR of 31% during the same period. Considering, strong earnings growth, we believe the valuations are attractive at 6.9x F9/12E EPS of Rs 24.6.

OnMobile Global: OnMobile is set to report increased traction in revenues driven by leadership in domestic business and upsides from Telefonica and Vodafone deals. It would incur a capex of Rs 700-800 million and pay Rs 1.7 billion in deferred liability to Telefonica in the current fiscal, comfortably supported by Rs 1.5 billion in operating CFs. We project revenue/EPS cagr of ~24%/49% over FY10-12 coupled with improved OPM and recommend BUY.

Petronet LNG (PLNG): PLNG has long term sale and purchase agreement for 7.5mtpa of LNG with Rasgas of Qatar. On the customer side, it has offtake agreement with GAIL, IOC and BPCL. This provides a strong revenue visibility for PLNG over the longer term. Further, with limited threat to re-gasification margins, earnings visibility is also robust. Over FY10-13E we expect revenue CAGR of 19.1% and PAT CAGR of 21.7%.

Radico Khaitan: Radico had raised Rs 3.4 billion via QIP in Mar’ 10 which it has utilized to repay debt and lower FY11 gross D/E to 0.7x-the lowest since at least FY05. We project revenue cagr of 14% over FY10-12, driven by robust volume growth and increased premiumization. OPM would expand on the back of lower spirits costs while savings in interest expense would drive a 53% EPS cagr. Recommend BUY.

Unity Infraprojects: Unity’s current valuation at 5x FY12 P/E is extremely attractive in the light of estimated strong 25% earnings CAGR over FY10-12. We only value the stand-alone EPC business and have not assigned any value to the company’s investment (~Rs 2 billion) in URDL, the real estate subsidiary. Therefore, successful land developments by URDL as planned would mean additional upside for the stock.

Yes Bank: Yes Bank the best bet in private banking space. The stock has underperformed its peers and currently trades at an attractive valuation of 2.3x FY12 BV.

                                                                      CHRISTMAS 2010 PICK FROM PINC RESEARCH

APOLLO TYRES
: Our FY11and FY12 consolidated earnings estimates are Rs 7.8 and Rs 9.7 respectively. Our FY11 consolidated earnings estimate is 11.9% higher than consensus expectation of Rs 6.9. We reiterate our 'BUY' recommendation on the stock with a target price of Rs 97.

GODAWARI POWER: Our earnings estimates are below consensus, mainly because we have not included Ardent Steel in our projections. Buy Godawari Power with a target of Rs 276.

HCL TECH: Our revenue estimates vary from Consensus by ~1%, underpinned by stronger volumes and modest uptick in pricing for FY12. Our EBITDA margin forecast for FY12 is in line with consensus. Our FY12 EPS estimate is also in line with consensus. Buy the stock with a target of Rs 488.

IRB INFRAOur FY11 and FY12 earnings estimates are Rs 15.6 and Rs 15.2, 9.8% higher and 6.1% lower than consensus respectively. We expect revenue growth of 62.6% and 48% to Rs 27.7 billion and Rs 41 billion versus consensus expectation of 58.3% and 42.3% to Rs 26.9 billion and Rs 38.4 billion in FY11 and FY12 respectively. We believe the recent stock price correction provides a good entry point for investors with a long-time horizon; our SOTP-based target price of Rs 301 (vs. consensus target of Rs 290) indicates potential upside of 34.4%.

JAGRAN PRAKASHAN (JPL): Our revenue estimates vary from consensus by ~8% for FY12E. Our FY12 net margin forecast of 19% is in line with consensus. Our FY12 EPS estimate, however, is 4% higher than consensus. Buy the stock with a target of Rs 165.

Mahindra and Mahindra (M&M): We expect EPS of Rs 41.3 and Rs 45.5 in FY11 and FY12 respectively. Our FY11 earnings estimate is 8.2% lower than consensus expectation of Rs 44.9. We value M&M using SOTP methodology at Rs 872, discounting the standalone business at 15x FY12E earnings.

NIIT TECH: Our top-line estimates vary from consensus by ~5.3%, underpinned by stronger volumes and modest uptick in pricing for FY12. Our EBITDA margin estimate for FY12 is 20.6% which is in line with consensus. Our FY12 EPS estimate is 4.3% higher than consensus. Buy the stock with a target of Rs 278.

SHREE CEMENT: Our FY11 and FY12 earnings estimates are Rs 133 and Rs 168 respectively. Our FY11 EPS estimate is 5.9% higher than consensus expectation of Rs 126. We remain positive on the stock due to management's excellent track record in project execution and strong earnings visibility. Buy the stock with a target of Rs 2580.

TATA STEEL: Our FY12 consolidated estimates are almost in line with consensus. We value Tata Steel using SOTP methodology at Rs 759.

USHA MARTIN: Our operating profit estimates are slightly lower than consensus as we remain cautious on volumes (our FY12E sales volume is 0.67mnt vs. the company's guidance of 0.8mnt) and margin expansion (FY12E OPM of 21.9% vs. guidance of 25% by Q4FY11). Buy the stock with a target of Rs 120.


Broker Recommendations

Sell Bajaj Auto; target of Rs 1400/1300: Aditya Birla Money Aditya Birla Money is bearish on Bajaj Auto and has recommended sell rating on the stock with a target of Rs 1400/1300 in its December 10, 2010 resear...
Buy ITC; target of Rs 191: Sharekhan Sharekhan is bullish on ITC and has recommended buy rating on the stock with a target of Rs 191 in its December 8, 2010 research report....
Buy Welspun Corp; target of Rs 200: Sunidhi Securities Sunidhi Securities is bullish on Welspun Corp (WCL) and has recommended buy rating on the stock with a target of Rs 200 in its Decembber 9, 2010 resea...
Buy India Cements; target of Rs 140: IIFL IIFL is bullish on India Cements and has recommended buy rating on the stock with a target of Rs 140 in its December 9, 2010 research report....
Add Tata Steel; target of Rs 722: IIFL IIFL has recommended add rating on Tata Steel with a target of Rs 722 in its December 9, 2010 research report....
Buy NTPC; target of Rs 240: Motilal Oswal Motilal Oswal is bullish on NTPC and has recommended buy rating on the stock with a target of Rs 240 in its December 7, 2010 research report....
Buy Mcnally Bh Engg; target of Rs 257: Firstcall Research Firstcall Research is bullish on McNally Bharat Engineering Company (MBE) and has recommended buy rating on the stock with a target of Rs 257 in its D...
Buy Tata Chemicals; target of Rs 375: IIFL IIFL is bullish on Tata Chemicals and has recommended buy rating on the stock with a target of Rs 375 in its December 9, 2010 research report....
Buy Tata Chem; target of Rs 400/430: Aditya Birla Money Aditya Birla Money is bullish on Tata Chemicals and has recommended buy rating on the stock with a target of Rs 400/430 in its December 9, 2010 resear...
State Bank of India an underperformer: Karvy Stock Broking Karvy Stock Broking has recommended an underperformer rating on State Bank of India (SBI) with a target of Rs 2640 in its December 7, 2010 research re...
Buy Allahabad Bank; target of Rs 240: Firstcall Research Firstcall Research is bullish on Allahabad Bank and has recommended buy rating on the stock with a target of Rs 240 in its December 8, 2010 research r...
Buy Monnet Ispat; target of Rs 622: PINC Research PINC Research is bullish on Monnet Ispat and Energy (MIEL) and has recommended buy rating on the stock with a target of Rs 622 in its December 8, 2010...
Buy Godawari Power & Ispat; target of Rs 276: PINC Research PINC Research is bullish on Godawari Power & Ispat and has recommended buy rating on the stock with a target of Rs 276 in its December 8, 2010 researc...
Add Jain Irrigation; target of Rs 252: IIFL IIFL has recommended add rating on Jain Irrigation with a target of Rs 252 in its December 8, 2010 research report....
Add Reliance Industries; target of Rs 1146: IIFL IIFL has recommended add rating on Reliance Industries with a target of Rs 1146 in its December 8, 2010 research report....                                                                                                     More Recommendations.........